Guoxin Securities strategy weekly commodities and rates from continuous converting-barcarolle

Guoxin Securities strategy weekly: commodities and rates from the investment would have difficulty continuing contest: Irving King peep catch demon shares of Sina Financial App: Live on-line blogger to tutor Guoxin Securities for 16 years since the divergence between domestic goods and the interest rate is mainly due to the disturbance of commodity market supply side, bring on the demand side did not improve significantly and prices later cost down, which is expected to deviate from the wheel or commodity price reversal to the end of departure from the trend. Since June this year, commodity prices and interest rates showed a reverse trend evident, the market discussion is more, we have the following analysis for investors: 1) historically seen two deviation commodities and rates, ultimately to reverse the interest rate to the end of departure from the trend. During the November 2004 -2006 year in May and June 2013 -2014 year in March, the domestic commodity prices and interest rates are presented: commodity prices rise, the drop in interest rates, commodity prices fell, the reverse trend rate rose by the end, interest rates rise or fall to the end of the two’s departure from the situation. 2, from the logic point of view, the commodity and interest rates reflect the economic demand side, when the supply side of the disturbance, the two tend to deviate from. From the two reasons in history, basically in the money supply and interest rates appear disturbance factors, during 04-05, the central bank in the open market initiative to guide interest rates down, 13 years of tightening monetary policy and capital interest rates sharply will bring money shortage event interference to the interest rate trend. 3) the current deviation is mainly caused by the supply side of the commodity market, the future or the reversal of commodity prices to end the trend of departure. Since the end of 15 the national implementation of the supply side to structural reforms in the administrative goal, environmental supervision and other measures, some industry cycle products appeared obvious contraction in the supply side, and after 5 years of falling prices, many basic commodity stocks remained at a low level. So in demand stabilized stabilized under the condition of the supply side contraction continued to rebound in prices. But we believe that the final decision is a change in demand, not supply. Therefore, this round of commodity prices and long-term interest rates deviate from the trend of commodity prices may eventually reverse the end of departure from the trend. First, despite the short-term macroeconomic stabilization, but 17 years downward pressure is still great. Secondly, the cost of rising prices brought about by their own suppression. Due to the still weak demand, prices rose sharply in the downstream of the upstream resources cannot be smoothly transmitted to, but bring cost pressures on the middle and lower reaches, and in the early stage will bring new pressure on the supply of production driven by increasing prices, commodity price formation of common pressing. Although the stock index back to 3100 points, but the worries disappeared, risk appetite has not rebounded significantly, maintaining the index rangebound judgment, configuration recommended the opportunity to search for higher structural uncertainty. Although the stock index back to 3100 points, but the worries disappeared, risk appetite was not significantly improved. National Day since the Shanghai Composite Index rose again to 3100 point position, to the end of February this year as the starting point on the rebound.相关的主题文章:

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