Hualong Futures soybean oil into the season to expand the spread of brown

Hualong soybean oil futures: brown beans spread into the season to expand,   the main logic strategy outlined the palm oil rose, early Nino makes the decline in palm oil producing countries, Malaysia and Indonesia’s production, but demand does not decline, the palm oil supply is tight, production of palm oil stocks are low, at the same time, domestic palm oil stocks are low, provide strong support for the rise of palm oil. Palm oil rose at the same time, boost stocks in a relatively high level of soybean oil also appeared to some extent. The result is the recent domestic soybean oil palm oil prices are basically the same. This is very unreasonable, because after entering the four quarter, as the temperature drops, palm oil demand will decline, at the same time, the three quarter is the seasonal increase production of palm oil, namely after entering the four quarter, palm oil shortage low probability. And, after entering the four quarter, due to the drop in temperature, soybean oil will enter the peak season, when soybean oil prices will be boosted. As a result, after entering the four quarter, according to the normal logic of soybean oil will be stronger than the palm oil, the current soybean Brown spreads widened is more likely. Therefore, we recommend the use of soybean oil to buy Palm Oil arbitrage strategy. Two,   macro analysis of August domestic macroeconomic data in July than the more obvious improvement, mainly in credit, August new RMB loans 948 billion 700 million yuan, 727 billion 800 million yuan expected, before the value of 463 billion 600 million yuan. August new scale of social financing 14700 yuan, the former value of 487 billion 900 million yuan. Secondly, fixed asset investment, private investment in fixed assets and real estate investment have shown signs of stabilization. Consumer data also rose. Therefore, the domestic macro face the pressure to reduce commodity, and has a certain role in support. Recent macroeconomic pressure from the Fed’s interest rate hike is expected, which will boost the dollar, and thus produce a certain amount of pressure on the overall commodity. Three, the fundamental analysis of 1 soybean brown spot spread is too small, is not reasonable at present with palm oil rose, soybean oil and palm oil spot price has been basically the same, it is not reasonable under normal circumstances, the main reason for this is that the El Nino phenomenon caused by palm oil producing countries, production. 2, the three quarter is the seasonal increase in production of palm oil last year from the law point of view, the three quarter is the seasonal increase production of palm oil, is currently just in this period, the supply is in the stage of the increase, in September, the output of October is expected to remain at a high level. 3, after October, a large number of palm oil to Hong Kong in accordance with the law in previous years, every year in October after China’s imports of palm oil will be a large number of Hong Kong, which will increase the supply pressure on the price of a certain pressure. 4, palm oil inventories low and strong from strong exports due to El Nino caused by palm oil production, but the demand was not reduced, at the same time, palm oil exports over the past, coupled with the current palm oil spot price is higher, these factors boost the recent rally of palm oil. But this is the fundamentals, not the fundamentals of January 2017. 5, the fourth quarter of the palm oil demand rate decreased after the follow-up into the four quarter, with the temperature decreased.相关的主题文章:

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